Major health shocks, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease, can alter a person’s life trajectory far beyond their immediate effects on health. Their consequences may also depend strongly on when in life they occur. A serious illness at age 35, for example, may affect a person differently from the same illness at age 55, when their career, family responsibilities, and options for retirement are very different.
This project examines what happens to people’s employment, income, retirement decisions, and reliance on government benefits are affected in the years following a major health shock. It then investigates how their recovery trajectories vary depending on the stage of life in which the health shock occurs, and why some people recover economically while others experience long-lasting consequences.
To understand these differences, the researcher study how health interacts with working conditions, family responsibilities, and the social security system. The project also examines whether health shocks widen existing socioeconomic inequalities - for example, because people in physically demanding jobs or with fewer financial resources may have fewer options to adapt when their health deteriorates.
The team is also developing a structural modelthat brings these different mechanisms together and allows researchers to examine how alternative policies could change people’s outcomes after a major health shock. This can help identify which forms of support are most effective, for whom, and at what stage of life.
The resulting evidence could support policy analysis and more informed decision-making in Japan, helping to design policies that enable people to remain in or return to work after serious illness while providing appropriate support when work is no longer possible. In an aging society, better understanding these trade-offs can also contribute to the long-term sustainability of healthcare, social security, and pension systems.
