Modeling the Spread of COVID-19

Professor Simone Pigolotti and his team from the Biological Complexity Unit are currently modelling the spread of COVID-19 within Okinawa to predict its impact.

April 22, 2020 Update

Read OIST web article "Modeling the Spread of COVID-19" about Professor Pigolotti's research findings.

April 19, 2020

A team from OIST, led by Professor Simone Pigolotti and postdoctoral researchers, Deepak Bhat, Davide Chiuchiù and Paula Villa Martín from the Biological Complexity Unit have been developing mathematical models to predict the spread and impact of COVID-19 within the Okinawa Prefecture.

Over the last three weeks, the team have gathered information on the number of daily cases, the rate of hospitalization and the estimated number of people arriving at Naha airport in Okinawa who may be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

The group have used this information to create two different models, based on established models created by other groups around the world for tracking the spread of the epidemic, which they adapted for the case of Okinawa.

“One goal from this research is to understand how the situation in Okinawa is unfolding, but the most important outcome will be as an aid to policy-making,” said Prof. Pigolotti. “We are using the model to generate predictions of different scenarios, where there are more or less stringent containment measures, which can allow officials to make more informed decisions.”

Prof. Pigolotti is expecting to release results from the modelling within the next few days.